Date: 2012-07-26 12:38 am (UTC)
This is all very surprising to me, because I thought that the movie was fairly close to finished as a two-parter.

The impression I'm getting from everything I've read over the last year or two has been leading me to believe that the first movie will probably end right about the time Bilbo and the Dwarves escape the Elves via barrels in the river. We won't even see Smaug until movie 2, much less the whole Battle of Five Armies.

Part of the time in movie 1 will be filled with some backstory - we'll spend more time with Radagast, we'll get at least the beginning of the White Council/Necromancer/Dol Guldur story that's been built up from material in the Appendices. That's more than enough to be going on with for one movie, I thought, and there's certainly more than enough story left for a second part.

I can't imagine where a third would come from.
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